The future of Mobile Web depends on mobile devices, not websites, apps.

A few weeks ago, Facebook announced that it saw a 200% growth in users accessing its mobile site, m.facebook.com. The amount of users to the site had jumped from 5 million last year, to 15 million users so far in 2008.

The jump in users was buoyed by a recent change on Facebook which allowed members to comment on other members’ status messages from their mobile phone.  And that change resulted in more than 1 million mobile posts in the first 24 hours of its availability.

However, despite this huge jump in users and the success of Facebook mobile, the overall progress of the mobile web does not depend so much on the quality of social-networking websites or mobile applications, but on the devices that they’ll be displayed on.  True adoption of the mobile web will have to appeal to the masses, not just to early-adopters, technophiles, and teenagers.  And that means quick accessibility to the internet, desktop-class web browsing, and intuitive navigation.

You may wonder, “What’s the explanation for such a dramatic rise in traffic on mobile sites then?” and the answer is that this kind of dramatic growth is to be expected; over the last several years cell phone companies have been offering more and more features, and they’ve been successful in slowly blurring the line between mobile phones, digital cameras, GPS devices, and iPods, and with that our expectations have grown.

Even though accessing the internet through your phone has become easier over time, we’re still a few years away from the do-it-all device.  And without the right device, the growth will eventually peak and progress will trickle forward.  Ultimately, adoption of the mobile web by the masses will only occur when a mobile device can be a sufficient replacement of the laptop computer.

Real Jesus Phone still a few Years Away
We’ve been moving towards that reality of a perfect phone for the past decade; each new phone model offers just a little bit more in terms of features.  With each offering, we inch closer towards

We’ve made jumps in progress for sure; the bar was raised several levels with the introduction of the iPhone in 2007.  Sleek, intuitive, a touch screen, and a loyal following pushed the iPhone ahead of the pack, and has been the device closest to bringing the convergence of a mobile phone, an integrated media player, GPS mapping, digital camera, and internet access all together on a one portable device.

However, even with the “Jesus Phone,” as it’s been referred to, and other advanced smartphones like the Blackberry, we’re limited by service provider.  And though the iPhone  and still seem to be a few years away from finding the common ground between a device like the iphone and a laptop.

Computers heading the same direction
It hasn’t just been mobile phone companies recognizing the importance of a fully-featured, ultra-portable, and intuitive device is the way of the future, laptop-manufacturers are certainly trending that direction also.

In the last decade, we’ve gone from bulky laptops to personal portables to ultra-portables to netbooks, each phase would introduce a new baseline for screen size (smaller), base (thinner), and weight (lighter).

Whether it’s the cell phone or laptop that gets there first, it won’t likely be just one device that will push us into this new era, but several devices of varying dimensions with different screen sizes to match our personal preferences.   (.i.e I think a laptop screen size larger than 13.3 begins to sacrifice portability)

But make no mistake, despite our different preferences, this device(s) will not only have to successfully make phone calls, but take quality photos (5MP+), provide pinpoint and accurate navigation (GPS), play music, display movies comfortably, and most importantly- access broadband-speed internet and display websites that are easy to navigate, both mobile and normal-resolutions, from anywhere in the world.

And until that happens the one device that blends all those features into one portable, intuitive device, we’ll have separate devices - a cell phone in the jean pocket, a digital camera in our shirt pocket, an Mp3 player in our jacket, a GPS in our car, and a laptop in our backpack.

Until that one omnipotent device is introduced, then the mobile web will have to wait on cell carriers, or laptop manufacturers, whomever gets there first.

Marketing a Presidential Candidate Online

Here at Geary, we like to cap off each week with an Innovation Session – an informal meeting with food, drinks and a presentation from the front lines of interactive marketing.

Last Friday, we chose to explore the various ways that Barack Obama and John McCain are marketing themselves online — with a particular focus on Web 2.0 strategies.

We tried to keep the presentation non-partisan, but it was difficult because Obama has made aggressive social media efforts his trademark. He has an active presence on MySpace, Facebook, and niche social networks such as Faithbase and BlackPlanet; active accounts on Twitter and YouTube; text message updates; an active social network at my.barackobama.com; and much more. McCain also has a social network on his main domain and presences on the big social networking sites, but his presence on Twitter and niche social networks is bare-bones compared to Obama’s, and he does not have a text messaging program.

We hypothesized that Obama’s aggressive efforts are primarily a function of the citizens he’s trying to reach — young people and first-time voters, as well as independent voters who spend time on niche online communities. We’re guessing that Obama has found that online efforts are a cost-effective way to reach new, disaffected and undecided voters — and he has the deep pockets to back up these efforts.

Here are some fun facts about each candidates’ online efforts:

• My.barackobama.com, Obama’s in-house social networking platform, is run by Chris Hughes, one of the co-founders of Facebook.
• Obama’s various websites get about 20 million visitors a month, compared to 4 million a month for McCain-affiliated sites.McCain is much more active in paid search advertising than Obama. At one point, McCain was bidding on 226 keywords, compared to only 174 by Obama.
• Obama ran 17 negative paid search ads, while McCain ran only three – the opposite of their general strategies, where McCain’s advertising ran much more negative than Obama’s.
• At present, Obama’s infomercial has 1.6 million views on YouTube. This is significant reach, but it’s dwarfed by the 33.55 million people who watched the infomercial on TV.

To learn more about this topic, you can view the full PowerPoint presentation.

I also recommend “Obama’s Wide Web” from the Washington Post and this article from MediaPost, which gives details about the candidates’ paid search strategies.

Could Cellphone Usage Cause Brain Damage?

I have never completely believed that cellphones could cause brain damage. I just considered it a bunch of hypochondriac hype. But I may stand corrected.

Here is just one of many YouTube videos that shows that cellphone waves can pop popcorn kernels. It seems ridiculous, but by just lining up more than 3 cellphones (in use) with the antennas pointing in the direction of the kernels, there is enough power to pop them.

I may start cutting down my cellphone usage now. That cannot be good for anyone. What do you think? Does this make all of the chatter about cell phones being bad for our health more probable?